Welcome to the Assel Gold wholesale and bullion market report for Friday July 31, 2026, serving our trade partners and bullion clients across the UAE. Spot gold has eased about 1.2% today to around $4,060 per ounce, pulling back after a two-day post-Fed rally — yet it is on track to close July with its first monthly gain in five months. This report covers the spot market, the week’s drivers, and the outlook relevant to wholesale buyers, bullion investors, and trade partners.
Spot reference prices (indicative, wholesale basis):
Gold spot: ~$4,060/oz | 24K: ~$130.40/gram | 22K: ~$119.55/gram | 21K: ~$114.10/gram | 1 kg gold bar: ~$130,400
Silver spot: ~$59/oz | Gold/silver ratio: ~69 | Platinum: ~$1,650/oz | Palladium: ~$1,300/oz
Premiums over spot apply to physical bullion bars and coins and vary by product, form, and quantity.
Market drivers — a week of crosscurrents:
The FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75% on Wednesday, but with three dissents favouring a 25bp hike, and Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone (reaffirming “no higher soft target” for inflation, committed to 2%). Gold rallied 2% initially on lower dollar/yields, then the move faded as markets digested the hawkishness. Thursday’s data was gold-supportive: core PCE +0.1% MoM (below 0.2% forecast), annual core eased to 3.3% from 3.4%, headline PCE fell 0.1% (first monthly decline since April 2020, aided by the brief war truce lowering gas prices); Q2 GDP grew just 1.5% (missed 2.1%). The dollar index slid to ~99.9–100.9 (lowest since mid-June) on suspected Japanese intervention supporting the yen. Offsetting these: the war reignited (fresh US strikes on Iran; Trump says the Iran deal is off; Houthis threatening Saudi vessels), keeping energy-driven inflation risk and elevated yields in play. September hike odds ~60–63% (down from ~81% pre-decision).
Relevance for wholesale and bullion clients:
Spot near $4,060 is about 27% below January’s record of $5,597, with gold up ~21.5% year-on-year and set for its first monthly gain since February (+~2% in July). The structural floor is exceptionally strong: central banks bought a net 41 tonnes in May (Poland 18, China 10) and 244 tonnes in Q1; the WGC survey found 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to rise, and 45% plan to add to their own. Notably, Bank of America trimmed its 2026 average forecast 14% to $4,360 on a more hawkish Fed but reaffirmed $5,000 is in reach once tightening ends. Bullion premiums remain elevated on firm physical demand and constrained mine supply (1–2% growth). WGC also noted rising unofficial gold inflows into India since its tariff increase.
Outlook:
Near-term, expect range-bound trade with a cautious tone as markets weigh cooling inflation and a weaker dollar (supportive) against hawkish Fed signalling and war-driven inflation risk (bearish). Key data: today’s Chicago PMI and UMich inflation expectations; next Friday’s (Aug 7) July nonfarm payrolls will be pivotal for the September decision. Support: ~$3,996, then 2026 lows near $3,941. Resistance: ~$4,114, then $4,157. For structural, long-term positioning, central bank demand and the $5,000 institutional targets remain supportive once the tightening cycle turns.
Assel Gold is committed to serving our wholesale and bullion clients across the UAE with timely market intelligence and competitive pricing. Please contact us directly for live wholesale quotes and bar availability.
Spot reference: ~$4,060/oz | 24K — $130.40/gram | 22K — $119.55/gram | 21K — $114.10/gram
All prices USD, indicative wholesale basis. Physical premiums apply. Confirm live pricing before transacting.
