Welcome to the Assel Gold wholesale and bullion market report for Thursday August 13, 2026, serving our trade partners and bullion clients across the UAE. Spot gold consolidates near $4,400 at two-month highs after Wednesday’s in-line-to-cooler CPI trimmed September hike odds to ~38–40%, while a decisively soured Hormuz picture — talks stalled, direct negotiations ruled out, the strait largely shut — keeps both oil and the haven bid elevated. Today’s PPI (8:30 AM ET) is the week’s second inflation verdict.
Spot reference prices (indicative, wholesale basis):
Gold spot: ~$4,400/oz (Wed close ~$4,406; weekly futures high $4,470.40; Wed low $4,362) | 24K: ~$141.45/gram | 22K: ~$129.65/gram | 21K: ~$123.75/gram | 1 kg gold bar: ~$141,450
Silver spot: ~$65.10–$66.20 (seven-week highs) | Gold/silver ratio: ~67 | WTI: ~$83.20 | Brent: ~$88.92 (both easing ~1% today on OPEC/IEA demand cuts) | DXY: firmer after reversing post-CPI dip
Premiums over spot apply to physical bullion bars and coins and vary by product, form, and quantity.
Market drivers:
1. CPI (Wed): July headline 3.4% YoY (from 3.5%), core 2.5% (from 2.6%), +0.1% MoM — in line, confirming the war’s energy shock has not yet produced a broader inflation impulse. September hike odds fell to ~38–40% (from 46% pre-print; 52% Tuesday); October odds dropped to ~60% from 75%; the next hike is now fully priced only for December. Gold gained ~1%, closed above $4,400, and — technically significant — crossed its 100-day SMA ($4,389) for the first time since April.
2. Hormuz — the reversal: Last week’s corridor optimism has collapsed. A senior Iranian official: no progress reviving the June interim deal; FM rules out direct talks; SNSC secretary conditions any reopening on US behaviour change, frozen-asset release, and regional concessions. Only 14 vessels transited Tuesday; US and Houthi forces reported separate shipping attacks. IEA warns inventory buffers rapidly depleting. Net for bullion: elevated oil complicates the pure dovish trade (Principal’s Shah: upside inflation risks stay “top of mind” while Hormuz is shut), but constrained shipping sustains defensive demand — a two-sided but net-supportive mix that has held gold in a $4,362–$4,470 band.
3. Labor anchor: July payrolls -23,000, unemployment 4.1%, -103,000 in revisions — the structural dovish anchor beneath all inflation noise.
Relevance for wholesale and bullion clients:
Gold at $4,400 sits ~21% below January’s record, up ~$1,000 YoY (~29%). The advance remains institutionally carried (Chinese clearing-data longs building; central banks underpinning physical; Q2 investment demand at multi-year lows = thin participation). Premiums stay elevated on tight availability and constrained Gulf logistics. Silver’s break past $65 (ratio compressing toward 67) continues to reward allocation; momentum targets $66+. For trade partners: two-sided event risk today — a soft PPI extends the move toward $4,435/$4,450/$4,470; a hot PPI plus firm dollar risks a technical retest of $4,389/$4,362, where the 100-day break and dip-buyers should provide structure. Friday’s retail sales completes the data set.
Outlook:
Resistance: $4,435, $4,450, $4,470, then $4,500 psychological. Support: $4,389 (100-day SMA), $4,362, $4,330. Base case: $4,350–$4,470 consolidation into next week, December-hike pricing and shut-strait premium flooring dips; upside skew if PPI confirms disinflation. Hormuz remains the binary: reopening headlines = oil-led dip then rate-channel support; escalation = haven-led extension. Year-end institutional maps unchanged: $4,500–$4,900 base case, $5,000 once tightening formally ends.
Assel Gold is committed to serving our wholesale and bullion clients across the UAE with timely market intelligence and competitive pricing. Please contact us directly for live wholesale quotes and bar availability.
Spot reference: ~$4,400/oz | 24K — $141.45/gram | 22K — $129.65/gram | 21K — $123.75/gram
All prices USD, indicative wholesale basis. Physical premiums apply. Confirm live pricing before transacting.
