Welcome to the Assel Gold wholesale and bullion market report for Wednesday July 29, 2026, serving our trade partners and bullion clients across the UAE. Spot gold is holding steady near $4,050 per ounce, remarkably composed as two major catalysts collide: the US-Iran war reignited this morning with an Iranian missile strike on US forces, and the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision this afternoon. This report covers the spot market, the drivers, and the outlook relevant to wholesale buyers, bullion investors, and trade partners.
Spot reference prices (indicative, wholesale basis):
Gold spot: ~$4,050/oz | 24K: ~$130.05/gram | 22K: ~$119.20/gram | 21K: ~$113.80/gram | 1 kg gold bar: ~$130,050
Silver spot: ~$59/oz (surged ~5% Tuesday) | Gold/silver ratio: ~69 | Brent crude: ~$85.75 (+3%) | WTI: ~$82.93 (+4.7%)
Premiums over spot apply to physical bullion bars and coins and vary by product, form, and quantity.
Market drivers — war reignites on Fed day:
The days-long US-Iran pause collapsed this morning as Iran’s IRGC fired multiple ballistic missiles at US forces in the region (an attempted surprise attack; CENTCOM says all were intercepted). Oil jumped: WTI +4.7% to ~$82.93, Brent +3% to ~$85.75. The war continues to apply opposing forces to gold: higher oil raises inflation/rate-hike risk (bearish) while safe-haven demand supports the metal (bullish). The net effect has been remarkable stability — gold has held above $4,000 for two weeks. The main event is the FOMC decision at 2:00 PM ET, with Chair Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET. A hold is widely expected (~66–71%), with a live ~30–34% hike probability; markets price ~77–79% odds of a September hike. Warsh’s tone is the true catalyst.
Relevance for wholesale and bullion clients:
Spot near $4,050 is about 28% below January’s record of $5,597, with gold up roughly 19% year-on-year. Physical demand remains firm, with persistent dip-buying near the psychological $4,000 level. The structural floor is exceptionally strong: central banks bought a net 41 tonnes in May (Poland 18, China 10) and 244 tonnes in Q1; the WGC’s latest survey found 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to rise over the coming year, and 45% plan to add to their own. Silver is notably strong, surging ~5% Tuesday and heading into a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit — worth noting for clients considering the white metal. Bullion premiums remain elevated on firm demand and constrained mine supply (1–2% growth).
Outlook:
Expect potential volatility around the 2:00 PM ET Fed decision and 2:30 PM ET Warsh press conference. A hawkish tone could push gold toward 2026 lows near $3,941/$3,911; a dovish tilt could extend gains beyond $4,100. June PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge) follows tomorrow, July 30, and may move the market as much as today’s decision — also alongside Q2 GDP, BoE, and BoJ. Range for the session: ~$4,008–$4,157. For structural, long-term positioning, central bank demand remains firmly supportive.
Assel Gold is committed to serving our wholesale and bullion clients across the UAE with timely market intelligence and competitive pricing. Please contact us directly for live wholesale quotes and bar availability, as spot prices may move quickly around the Fed decision.
Spot reference: ~$4,050/oz | 24K — $130.05/gram | 22K — $119.20/gram | 21K — $113.80/gram
All prices USD, indicative wholesale basis. Physical premiums apply. Confirm live pricing before transacting.
